It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
