A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
